AL East: A Beast or a Feast?

Every year, it is expected that four of the five American League East teams will compete for first place in the division. Between the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Orioles it seems to be a crapshoot who will eventually take the crown. This year the Blue Jays have jumped into the fray and are vying for first in the division. Notoriously the division has been considered one of the strongest in baseball and they’ve manhandled opponents seemingly at will. While MLB pundits predicted the same thing this year, a different trend is beginning to take place inside the powerful confines of the AL East.

Right now the Yankees lead the division with a 15 and 10 record, the O’s are second with a .500 record at 12 and 12, two-and-a-half games out and the Blue Jays (12-13), Red Sox (12-14) and Rays (11-14) respectively follow. At this juncture in the season, everyone expects division to be close as the good teams haven’t been able to separate from the bad teams. Things will change and one or two teams in the division will separate from the rest. While the Yankees are the only team above .500 currently, none of these teams have a positive run differential. This means each of these teams have given up more runs than they’ve scored.

Why is that interesting, though? Each team is within eight runs of each other. The Rays and Red Sox each have scored division low 105 runs and the Blue Jays have scored the most with 113. The fewest runs allowed by any team is 114 by both the O’s and the Jays. This means none of the AL East teams have scored more runs than any AL East team has allowed. This begs to question just how good this division really is.

Of the other ten American League teams, only three have a negative run differential making eight total AL teams with fewer runs scored than given up.  Of the eight teams, only two teams have a .500 record or better; the O’s and the Yankees. Those records might be indicative of the division though. The Yankees are 10 and 7 against AL East foes and the Orioles are 10 and 8. Those are hardly great numbers but they contribute to the idea that the only teams that are playing relatively well with a negative run differential are teams in a weak division. The Yankees have feasted on the Red Sox in the early season and are 5 and 2 against their rivals, including a 14 to 5 blowout.

The Yankees, Orioles and Rays have also played well in one-run games and while winning those games is good for your record they don’t really help out your run differential. A trend of winning one-run games though isn’t ideal for good teams because in those contests anything can happen. The old baseball adage of “a bloop and a blast” could quickly change your fortunes. Good teams need to win by a wider margin of victory than one run. It will lessen the wear on your bullpen of always pitching in high pressure situations and it also proves your offense is capable of carrying the load when needed.

As the season continues, this trend will almost assuredly change and all these teams need to hope it does. Only four teams since 2009 have a winning record and a negative run differential. Simply put, the rule is teams need to have positive run differentials to be competitive. Right now, the AL East is proving the rule true with the Yankees as the exception.

The AL East is notoriously known as the “Beast of the East” because it’s such a difficult division to win. One of these teams will win the division with a positive run differential but the rest of the league might continue to feast on the beast until one team can separate themselves from the pack.