I’m not an expert on winning Fantasy Baseball. This article should probably be called “Coming in 3rd Place in your Fantasy Baseball league” since two of the last three years I’ve finished as the second runner-up (And that’s not including 4 out of 5 years in 3rd place in Fantasy Football also). But last year I finally prevailed as the baseball league champ and now I feel that I’m at least semi-qualified to write an article on winning in fantasy baseball.
In almost every fantasy sport you have to nail your first round pick, in baseball it isn’t as important as you think. Last year I selected Matt Kemp as my first pick (third overall pick of the draft). It wasn’t a terrible pick; he was only 1 year removed from a second place MVP season. But then he missed more than half my season. He sat on my DL for more games than he played. His contributions while on the field were very good, though. That being said, you can make up from a bad first-round draft pick.
I drafted a very strong pitching staff that included Kris Medlen, Gio Gonzalez, Max Scherzer, CJ Wilson and James Shields. I expected Wilson to be my ace but before the season started I knew I was weak at first base and needed to add another bat so I traded Wilson for Edwin Encarnacion. His 36 homeruns and 104 RBI made up for losing Wilson’s 17 wins and 188 k’s. The trade worked out well for both sides. As the season started moving I made a trade that centered on Clay Buccholz and Gonzalez. I thought it was a steal for me but after one start Buccholz ended up on the DL for almost the rest of the season. I thought losing Buccholz would be a killer but Scherzer’s monster year negated that loss. Also an early season pick-up of Ervin Santana kept my pitching staff strong.
Besides Scherzer, my rotation consisted mostly of number-2 type starting pitchers. But in fantasy baseball that’s all that you need. Keep it simple with your rotation; it isn’t necessary to have all number-1 guys. Everyone will be going after those guys, start with the solid number-2 pitchers and collect as many as possible before anyone else has a chance to grab them.
Then there’s your bullpen. Last year my league included holds which was almost a free category for me because I grabbed a bunch of great middle relievers. But at the same time my hand was forced into doing so because I drafted closers too late. For the majority of the season those two categories were a wash for me. I was fortunate that some of my middle relievers slid and excelled in closer roles (I’m looking at you Kenley Jansen). Combining my now middle relief and closer columns my saves and holds soared giving me a 2-0 lead almost every week before anyone ever took the field. If you’re fortunate to have holds as a category make sure you grab top-notch middle relief pitchers. Not only will you get holds but at some point during the year those guys will be called on to close games too.
Offense requires several things: good timing, watching trends and a great deal of luck. My offense the last month of the season was completely abysmal. In the championship week I led 7-6 on Thursday. After Sunday rolled around I still led 7-6 on the same exact categories. Why? Because I couldn’t hit, luckily for me neither could my opponent’s team. If he had hit one homerun from Thursday to Sunday, I would have lost. I rolled a hot team from April through August but my bats went quiet in September. I had a first round playoff bye and then played two teams whose offense went dry the same time mine did. That’s the luck I’m talking about.
Good timing involves keeping an eye on available players. Last year a manager couldn’t hold Hanley Ramirez because he needed the extra DL spot so he dropped him. It paid off for me because I grabbed him immediately. Always watch who becomes available. It’s a lot of work but good timing comes from constantly being aware. If you’re up early be the first person in your league to monitor the free agent board. It only takes minutes and if someone drops a player you know is bound to turn around a bad start or come back strong from injury then pick him up. The risk is almost always worth the reward.
Trend watching is also a huge key for offense. Yahoo has a great option that helps you see players that are being picked up and dropped. And a “who’s hot” list for each position in the field. These options let you see where your players are ranked. If you find a mediocre player like Vernon Wells is lighting it up grab him! He’ll stay hot for a week or two and then then will taper off but you will have grabbed a huge boost from him for two weeks. Baseball players are very streaky; when someone is hot you better get his bat in your lineup.
The one category that you can’t afford to miss out on is offensive sleepers. Last year I drafted two sleeper picks that paid dividends for me, Matt Carpenter and Kyle Seager, and later picked up Josh Donaldson during the season. Seager drifted off the last month of the year but he helped carry me the entire season. Carpenter led the league in runs, hits and doubles. Above everyone, I’d say he was my MVP. Because of him I was always able to keep pace in average, runs and extra-base hits. It’s difficult to find good sleepers but if you think you got one or two give them a chance to come through for you, don’t drop them too quickly.
There are many theories to winning fantasy sports championships. Everyone you talk to will give different keys and strategies. I’ve found that these strategies helped me a great deal last year and maybe they’ll give you a chance at bringing home a championship trophy. But then again there’s a good chance they’ll get you a third-place finish too.
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